Expect a wide distribution of outcomes, a long holding period, and lots of zeros. The Angel Resource Institute’s landmark studies show many deals fail outright, while a small minority drive most gains. Historical U.S. angel data (exited deals only) reported an average payoff around ~2–3× with a handful of big winners; results vary by cycle, selection, and support. Time to liquidity is measured in years, not months—often multi‑year and sometimes near a decade, especially if IPO/M&A markets are slow.
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Return math depends on your strategy:
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● Broad indexing (many small initial checks, then follow the winners) is designed to capture power‑law upside.
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● Concentrated, high‑conviction investing can work if you have privileged access and strong judgment—but it increases single‑name risk.
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● Recycling follow‑ons into clear breakout companies can lift MOIC/DPI over time.

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Use realistic assumptions: most companies won’t exit; secondaries may be limited; and down markets stretch timelines. Treat interim “mark‑ups” cautiously—it’s distributed cash (DPI) that pays you, not paper gains.